IN the first decade of the 21st century, world exports boomed and then fell sharply. And there was a restructuring of the major manufacturing nations of the world.
Multimedia
In 1999, the top five exporting countries were the traditional industrial powers — the United States, Germany, Japan, France and Britain. Combined, they accounted for 43 percent of the exports reported by 40 large countries.
As can be seen in the accompanying charts, a new order has emerged. China went from the ninth-largest exporter in 1999 to the largest in 2009. Germany, which passed the United States to become the largest exporter from 2003 to 2008, wound up in second place as the United States fell to third. Britain tumbled to No. 10, from No. 5.
All told, the share of exports of the Big Five of 1999 fell to 34 percent in 2009. That loss of nine percentage points was matched by a similar gain for China, India and South Korea, with most of the gain going to China.
Measured in dollars, Chinese exports rose at a compound annual rate of 20 percent through the decade.
China even did better than most in 2009, when the combined exports of the 40 large countries fell by 21 percent. China’s dropped by 16 percent that year.
Among the top 12 shown in the graphic, the largest declines in 2009 — all of 25 percent or more — were recorded by Japan, Italy and Canada. The United States suffered an 18 percent drop.
The 40 countries included in the tally are the largest ones for which figures are available through at least November. Among them, all but Belgium and Spain have reported December numbers. Their figures were estimated based on trends from September to November.
Countries that report figures either annually or quarterly were not included. The largest exporters thus left out are mostly oil exporters, including Saudi Arabia. The figures cover exports of goods, not services.
During the decade, American exports rose at a compound rate of a little more than 4 percent. That was far behind China and other emerging Asian exporters like South Korea (10 percent) and India (16 percent). But it was faster than Britain, Canada or Japan.
Those figures are in nominal dollars, not adjusted for inflation. The gains would be different if measured in other currencies, like the euro or yen, but the order would be the same.
There are indications of strong rebounds in exports as the world economy begins to recover. In December, American exports were 21 percent above where they had been in the same month of 2008, compared with China’s 18 percent rise. China’s exports were still much larger than those of the United States.
Only a few countries, mostly in Asia, have reported January figures, but some of them showed explosive gains from the depressed levels of early 2009. China’s exports rose 21 percent, but that paled in comparison to the 47 percent gain reported by South Korea and the 77 percent increase in shipments from Taiwan.
A significant part of those gains may reflect the need to fill depleted inventories, rather than a surge in consumer demand. It remains to be seen whether world trade can return to the sustained high levels shown from 2003 through 2008, when exports of the 40 countries rose by more than 10 percent every year.