Follow my blog posts and this week’s newspaper column and it’s clear that I’m looking at the diplomatic mid-term and long-term for resolution of the Russo-Georgia War.
However, this morning I had “one of those conversations” about US and Western European military options—in the gym. Hey, these chats are occurring in defense ministries, in State Departments, in trenches outside of Tbilisi — the difference is, the conversation in the gym doesn’t matter while the ones in the ministries and trenches do.
So what military forces could the US send? The gym talk was a serioius conversation, after a fashion. I’d also had this exchange with a commenter on a prior post regarding the Russian decision to halt:
Commenter 2: “I believe Russia decided to quit before the counter stroke could be applied. At least it looks that way if you consider the terms of the armistice.”
My reply is fairly involved but it included this: “Would the counter-stroke you forsee involve Georgian allies? Now that follows a different time line, doesn’t it…?”
Reinforcement is a “counter-stroke” – one with risks.
Moving Georgia’s Iraq force home in US air transports was a reminder of US strategic reach. That was a military option and it has been employed. WHo knows? It may have given Moscow some pause. We’ve already seen at least one quasi-military option employed. Using USAF cargo planes to bring humanitarian supplies is standard policy – but a C-17 is a US military plane. That is a message, a limited, careful, but calculated message, and constitutes a low-risk option that, well, the order has been given and the transports are flying. The presence of US military training forces in Georgia is a message — one Russia chose to ignore. Beefing up the training and support mission is a military option.
In the gym I produced a scenario that puts two big-time geo-strategic gamblers in an armed face-off. I dubbed it “Texas Hold’em versus Russian Roulette.” In succinct terms: the force deployed comprises a reinforced US airborne brigade plus allied contingents if you can get them (Polish, Ukrainian, Iraqi, even Chinese?– this is, after all, fantasy). Base air support in a Black Sea littoral nation, and two carrier battle groups in the Black Sea itself when (if) Turkey allows their passage through the Straits. Nail overflight permission – told you, tricky diplomacy required at all levels.
But — say this in the gym, say it on the radio, say it on the blog– to make a genuine military statement on the edge of the Russian land mass requires heavy forces – at least a division that can be supported by follow-on heavy divisions. All else is a speed bump. Heavy divisions take time to deploy and move either by land through Europe or by sea.
The downside of any US-led military option is summed in this pseudo-equation: Texas Hold’em plus Russian Roulette = The New Eastern Front. Advantage Russian Roulette. You’re on the Bear’s turf.
Thus ended an exercise in political science fiction.
As a retired military friend of mine says, in a Georgia-type scenario the US can execute a minimal show of force mission (airborne brigade plus) or launch nuclear strikes. Ouch.
But willing or not, the scenario proceeds. Even though it’s fiction we’re out of the gym. A military planner is called on the carpet in the White House and receives a grim howdy from an American president committed to defending an emerging democracy located in Russia’s European near-abroad. The president has played global Texas Hold’em for years. He says: “So. You keep nixing military options. I’m not satisfied. Give me a mil option that meets my strategic requirements but adapts to diplomatic initiatives and works within time and logistical constraints.”
The fictional reply: Insert a Peacekeeping Brigade (PKB). Call it a Peacekeeping Organization (PKO) if you want to give it an extra diplomatic smudge.
(Texas Hold’em raises an eyebrow.)
A peacekeeping brigade comprises at least two engineer battalions with attached military police, medical, Civil Affairs, signal units and lots of media connectivity. Cameras matter. Add State Department personnel. Add Special Forces with their linguistic talents and a light infantry battalion for local security. Embed non-governmental organizations with the guts to participate and promise support to NGOs who choose to operate on their own but would accept clean water and blanets. Why, Mr. President, you can help the human shields. Aren’t they heading for Georgia to stop a super-power invasion? Tell the human shields our peacekeeping outfit will give them MREs and bandaids while they chain themselves to Georgian churches to protect them from Russian bombs.
(Texas Hold’em grins at this possibility.)
Insert the PKB in a Russo-Georgia type situation and the emerging democracy gets on-the-ground support. The PKB is not an offensive military force, but an airborne brigade at the end of a long logistical tether isn’t either. The PKB serves as a military-diplomatic “transition signal” – Texas Hold’em and the emerging democracy get some of the value of a combat speed bump, while reducing though not eliminating the risks of inserting combat forces.
(Texas Hold’em…the man nods. Says thanks.)
REALITY CHECK: Unfortunately, we don’t have a dedicated peacekeeping brigade I’ve supported a dedicated peacekeeping organization since the early 1990s. This blog post from 2006 captures some of that history. The US Army War College paper I mention (advocating a “PKB”) drew a note from its grader, a US Navy commander. To paraphrase from memory: “Your generals won’t let you do it.” That was 1997.
UPDATE: I don’t usually do this but I will this afternoon.
George from Sunnyvale writes via Creators.com (my creators syndicate box):
“I read your comment about our military options in Georgia on austinbay.net with great interest. Your post made me think of a question.
Would it be possible for us to give the Georgian’s cruise missiles without the Russians deeming it an act of war on our part? And could cruise missiles close the Roki tunnel? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roki_Tunnel
Thank you for your reply. Feel free to respond via email or on your blog.”
Tunnels and roads and railroads aren’t the problem — it’s the Kremlin’s behavior. A US-supplied cruise missile closing a tunnel might make for great pix, may make some people feel good (for the moment), but unless the missile attack is part of a concerted effort of coordinated and supported actions, it gives Moscow another “cause” with few consequences. The Kremlin could plow straight through a US peacekeeping brigade and toss the troops into prisons, but it faces immense political risks and conseqeunces if it does. For the record, I don’t think Moscow has won — I think it is in position to get a victory of a type. Instapundit had a poll asking who won? I voted for “neither.” We don’t know yet. Moscow doesn’t know yet. Tbilisi doesn’t know yet. We can speculate. Welcome to freedom of speech. Worth defending, isn’t it?