By DON KAPLAN
Last updated: 8:27 am
September 24, 2008
Posted: 2:41 am
September 24, 2008
FRIDAY'S first presidential debate between John McCain and Barack Obama could draw big numbers.
But it's really a roll of the dice in the unpredictable TV landscape.
Since 1960, the first televised presidential debate of the election cycle is typically among the most-watched - unless it's held on a Friday, the week's second-least-watched night of TV (behind Saturday).
"People are out doing things on Fridays and Saturdays," says Horizon Media's Brad Adgate.
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"It's a date night and the viewers that are home tend to be older or families with young children - who can't go out."
"That's why you see networks putting on news magazines, dramas or family-oriented type of shows [on Fridays]."
But Adgate wonders if this year could be different, since the Obama-McCain battle has struck such a raw nerve among the American public.
And, he says, it's the younger viewers who could give the debate a ratings boost.
"Certainly there has been a kind of heightened interest with this election among younger folks," Adgate says.
"Some may watch it on-demand on something like YouTube, while others might TiVo it.
"People are getting their information very differently these days than in the past."
There have been eight election cycles since 1960 that have featured televised presidential debates.
In those cycles, the first debate has averaged roughly 60.7 million viewers, while the last debate has dropped to 56.3 million viewers, according to Nielsen.
There were Friday debates in 1976 and 2004, and two of the four 1960 debates were on a Friday.
"In each case, these were the lowest-rated debates of the cycle," says statistical whiz/blogger Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com, a respected political polling site.
This Friday's debate on foreign policy - carried live at 9 p.m. on every broadcast and cable news network - will be moderated by PBS' Jim Lehrer.
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