ZCZC MIAWRKPD3 LOC
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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT SEP 05 1992
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE LOW
CLOUD LEVELS...BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LOOK RAGGED. 
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30KT IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES
FROM BOTH THE NHC AND SAB.  THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOT WELL
ESTABLISHED SO ONLY A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. 
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATER FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS AND STILL HAS A CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING THAN
FORECAST IF THE DEEP CONVECTION CAN BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR
THE CENTER.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/14.  STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT...AND THE CURRENT TRACK CONTINUES THE GENERAL MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST BUT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  CURRENT TRACK IS A
BLEND OF ALL THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS.

MAYFIELD

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0300Z 11.4N 136.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/1200Z 11.4N 138.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     07/0000Z 11.3N 141.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     07/1200Z 11.3N 143.1W    35 KTS
48HR VT     08/0000Z 11.4N 145.1W    35 KTS
72HR VT     09/0000Z 11.5N 149.0W    35 KTS